Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 37.072962 40.353815 43.992850 48.369804 53.548719 59.556880 67.170891
2025-07-27 33.626866 38.205979 43.695481 50.926964 60.478839 73.118638 92.019722
2025-08-03 31.113546 36.301988 42.837963 51.995110 65.099320 84.355455 117.766075
2025-08-10 28.995964 34.477311 41.635316 52.143034 68.174360 93.952057 145.531747
2025-08-17 26.819167 32.288253 39.603798 50.692946 68.405272 98.901668 167.656505
2025-08-24 25.019408 30.415608 37.771699 49.214696 68.203085 102.905161 190.534505
2025-08-31 24.523009 30.250465 38.286093 51.300536 74.269960 120.763247 266.979257
2025-09-07 23.199608 28.819224 36.814398 50.025090 74.090923 125.587036 311.161936
2025-09-14 22.090580 27.614993 35.574642 48.970536 74.110061 130.904799 368.162507
2025-09-21 20.778422 26.044537 33.673173 46.614392 71.219779 128.188428 384.060943
2025-09-28 20.075075 25.318073 33.008245 46.296734 72.352609 136.388281 485.753423
2025-10-05 20.095971 25.645428 33.983637 48.927500 80.135821 167.551915 1004.369205
2025-10-12 19.128565 24.578615 32.883834 48.097273 81.137187 182.192557 1911.606418
2025-10-19 18.854576 24.558281 33.499725 50.631542 91.107478 243.953479 NaN
2025-10-26 18.341382 24.121773 33.369906 51.688985 97.916332 309.193695 NaN
2025-11-02 17.733171 23.489035 32.838909 51.835421 102.351271 377.024187 NaN
2025-11-09 16.942900 22.517944 31.639570 50.399799 101.597426 407.699714 NaN
2025-11-16 16.217190 21.612287 30.491311 48.936000 100.371871 435.038183 NaN
2025-11-23 16.054382 21.602126 30.924211 51.001363 111.714622 686.598054 NaN
2025-11-30 15.454443 20.844608 29.949112 49.738509 110.874894 763.226279 NaN
2025-12-07 14.926521 20.182269 29.107632 48.694197 110.589947 869.847789 NaN
2025-12-14 14.265592 19.275222 27.769719 46.360375 104.731669 791.879224 NaN
2025-12-21 13.903193 18.849953 27.300876 46.045667 106.826721 998.178181 NaN